Danny Alexander: ICM vs Inverness Courier

With George Osborne’s sidekick deleting a tweet after realising it referenced a poll showing he stood to lose his seat in 2015 yesterday, Danny Alexander’s office had already released a statement trashing ICM and claiming that a “projection” in his local paper is more reliable:

“This deeply flawed poll is in stark contrast to the projection published last week in the Inverness Courier. That projection, which took into account the recent election results, showed Danny holding the seat ahead of Labour with the SNP in third place.”

“The Courier knows the constituency intimately and is better placed to assess the political mood than a remote polling company using a flawed methodology.”

His office manager even tweeted an image from the front of the Inverness Courier:

Having done a little local digging, however, Scrapbook can confirm that this isn’t a poll at all — nor was it presented as such. The ‘2015’ figures are generated by applying the 2009-1014 swing in the European elections for the whole Highlands region to the 2010 result from Beaker’s constituency.

Whatever the legitimate debate around methodology, even Lib Dem-endorsed ‘adjustments’ to the poll funded by Lord Oakeshott fail to put Alexander in the clear — currently suggesting a 10-11% loss to the SNP.

It’s getting pretty desperate to set your local paper up against a 25 year-old research company and a member of the British Polling Council.

  1. Angus Agnes says:

    The Inverness Courier has long shown a LibDem bias and is frequently just a Danny Alexander fanzine. Any political comment from it as got to be read with this in mind.

  2. Daany Alexander is aware he is finished in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey. The question is, what next? Has he done enough to merit a safe Tory seat in England or will it be straight into ermine for a sleep in the Lords’ dormitory?

  3. Having just carried out an assessment along similar lines of the methodology to that deployed by his local paper, I can reveal that Danny is best suited for future employment as … a pantomime dame

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