Obama has an almost nine in ten chance of winning the US election. Nate Silver, whose Five Thirty Eight polling blog is published by the New York Times, predicted Obama an 86.3% chance of winning today – up 11.7% since the end of October.

Though the figures from Silver’s model of the electoral college differ from other pollsters, he has form: he correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states in the previous 2008 election and all of the 35 senate races. In a recent blogpost, Silver explained his reason for calling Obama the favourite despite the popular vote seeing a difference of only 2.1%:

“The argument that Mr. Obama isn’t the favorite is the one that requires more finesse. If you take the polls at face value, then the popular vote might be a tossup, but the Electoral College favors Mr. Obama.”

For example, RealClearPolitics have compiled an average of polls from 22nd October to the 4th November and are calling it much closer, with Obama at 47.9 and Romney at 47.4, leaving only a 0.5 gap between them.

Polls close in eastern states from 11pm UK time tomorrow.

  1. I think for the sanity of most decent thinking progressive “constructionalists”, who want to see society improve and develop in a positive fashion, should see Obama in to a second term. If Romney gets in, I just hope he mellows down a bit and all the rhetoric was just to win the votes of the extreme right. Once he is in (*if*), I beg that he cools down into the centre more.

  2. Nate Silver is not conducting polls. He’s axtrapolating what he wants from others’ private and commissioned polls whose questions, sampling, and structure are rarely offered for scrutiny.

    This should be obvious to you. NO-ONE has a “92% chance of victory”. If you have a problem with confirmation bias here, you might find yourself badly disappointed.

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