While Smarkets offer odds on Andy Coulson’s departure from Downing Street before Tory conference on 3rd October, the real endgame would likely be played out on a longer timescale.  When asked by Scrapbook, William Hill priced his exit before the end of the year at 2/1 – much better value than the 36% on offer with Smarkets.

With the next set piece coming when David Cameron is confronted on phone hacking for the first time at PMQs on Wednesday, this is a story that will run for months. While a paper trail incriminating Coulson has so far eluded investigators, the testimony of Sean HoareRoss HallPaul McMullan (and others) could tip the balance.

This may well be worth a punt.

Cartoon: Steve Bell

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