While Smarkets offer odds on Andy Coulson’s departure from Downing Street before Tory conference on 3rd October, the real endgame would likely be played out on a longer timescale. When asked by Scrapbook, William Hill priced his exit before the end of the year at 2/1 – much better value than the 36% on offer with Smarkets.
With the next set piece coming when David Cameron is confronted on phone hacking for the first time at PMQs on Wednesday, this is a story that will run for months. While a paper trail incriminating Coulson has so far eluded investigators, the testimony of Sean Hoare, Ross Hall, Paul McMullan (and others) could tip the balance.
This may well be worth a punt.
Cartoon: Steve Bell