Be it Cain and Abel or Edmund and Edgar, references to Labour’s fraternal rivalry grew shopworn after four months of competition. But catching up on coverage of Labour conference yesterday evening, Scrapbook was most amused by Andrew Rawnsley’s Sicilian rendering of the leadership competition.
There can only be one capo di tutti capi.
Apologies for the lack of posts. As we found in Brighton last year, it’s difficult to blog from within the conference bubble but we promise to try harder tomorrow! We’ll be doing a roundup of the best events/receptions/parties in the morning but in the meantime check out FringeList.
The highlight for many today was David Miliband’s much-anticipated speech to the conference hall. Telling delegates “I’ll be fine”, he praised his brother and called for party unity.
But he still hasn’t decided about his future within the party.
Ed Miliband’s campaign team weren’t the only ones who breathes a sigh of relief yesterday. Scrapbook chatted to one bookmaker shortly after the result:
“Ed was at a high price for much of the contest and we took a lot of money for him late on. But the overall weight of money behind David means it’s a small win for us.”
Mike Smithson cleaned up with a three-figure profit.
Ed Miliband’s poker face had this blogger fooled. It’s 138 days since Gordon Brown resigned as Labour leader.
Now let’s get stuck in.
Amid feverish speculation on the final outcome, Betfair have suspended their market on Labour’s leadership contest. This is an odd move. Unlike bookies such as Ladbrokes, with Betfair’s betting exchange model the company are not exposed to losses and simply hoover up commission. There would be plenty of money to be made here.
Do their experts reckon the official result has leaked?
UPDATE 08:30 Betting was restored this morning with Ed favourite at 5/1 and David pushed out to 3/1 before odds were then suspended on the older Milibrother!
UPDATE 09:10 Now Betfair suspend their market. Odd as, with an exchange model, they are not exposed to losses (unlike Ladbrokes).
In the spirit of it being better to arrive late to a party then never at all: Ed Miliband was in the early hours of Friday morning installed as the bookmakers favourite in the Labour Leadership election. But in the late hours of Friday night Ladbrokes have suspended betting on the younger sibling.
A lot has happened since the last time Scrapbook posted a chart of shifting odds but, until the final days of the contest, little seemed to change in prices offered by bookies. In the previous months the markets actually trended away from Ed Miliband with David recording a record low price of 1/4 on September 4th. That is, until a YouGov poll gave Ed M a slight lead and put him in the betting with a price of 2/1. The trend then narrowly moved towards Ed Miliband but nowhere near enough to imply a win.
Last night however the betting reversed spectacularly, with Ed Miliband now the favourite. Graphs of Ladbrokes and Betfair prices illustrate the collapse:
Ladbrokes odds compiled by Scrapbook
Betfair exchange odds posted by Poltical Betting
There is now feverish speculation as to what could have triggered this 11th-hour shift.
Either way Scrapbook will be awaiting the result: Blackberry in one hand; popcorn in the other.
Having dispensed with Abbott and Balls, LabourList’s look back at the various leadership campaigns turned to Andy Burnham yesterday. Mark Ferguson writes that Burnham seemed to gain momentum after a slow start. Indeed, the talented and likeable former Health Secretary seemed trapped by his ”northern candidate” status:
“Actually my pitch hasn’t been that I’m from the north … People just choose to hook me in that bracket because of my accent.” – Andy Burnham, Progress Magazine, September 2010
Poor, Andy. How dare those metropolitan Guardianistas pigeon-hole his campaign! But as this humble correspondent observed in a short post for Total Politics, this was actually a problem of his own design. In the TV interview which launched his leadership bid in earnest, Burnham said:
“My background is different. As people can probably hear I come from a different part of the country.” – Andy Burnham, Andrew Marr Show, May 2010
Scrapbook looks forward to seeing Burnham meet a new challenge at the despatch box shortly.
Newbie MP and Labour Leadership contender (“contender”? Think “hopeful” will do – Ed.) Jim Garner has burnished his self-proclaimed maverick tendencies with his latest campaign video.
Despite omission from the ballot paper due to a misunderstanding – Garner forgot to officially nominate himself, meaning he didn’t reach the required 33 CLP nominations – the South Luxton and Wetfield MP recorded a short piece to camera in which he appeals to Labour members:
“This is alternative vote how it should be. Change the ballot paper for change!”
More details on Garner’s electoral reform pledge are available via his website.
