Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband

UPDATE 08:30 Betting was restored this morning with Ed favourite at 5/1 and David pushed out to 3/1 before odds were then suspended on the older Milibrother!

UPDATE 09:10 Now Betfair suspend their market. Odd as, with an exchange model, they are not exposed to losses (unlike Ladbrokes).

In the spirit of it being better to arrive late to a party then never at all: Ed Miliband was in the early hours of Friday morning installed as the bookmakers favourite in the Labour Leadership election. But in the late hours of Friday night Ladbrokes have suspended betting on the younger sibling.

A lot has happened since the last time Scrapbook posted a chart of shifting odds but, until the final days of the contest, little seemed to change in prices offered by bookies. In the previous months the markets actually trended away from Ed Miliband with David recording a record low price of 1/4 on September 4th.  That is, until a YouGov poll gave Ed M a slight lead and put him in the betting with a price of 2/1. The trend then narrowly moved towards Ed Miliband but nowhere near enough to imply a win.

Last night however the betting reversed spectacularly, with Ed Miliband now the favourite. Graphs of Ladbrokes and Betfair prices illustrate the collapse:

Ladbrokes odds compiled by Scrapbook

Betfair exchange odds posted by Poltical Betting

There is now feverish speculation as to what could have triggered this 11th-hour shift.

  • Did posts by Guido and Mike Smithson skew the market as punters flocked to back Ed and sell positions on David? The latter remarked “I sort of expected that there could be some movement on the Labour leadership markets but nothing on the scale of what has happened.”
  • Have back-of-the-envelope sums indicated that David Miliband’s apparently solid PLP support was more soft than previously thought?
  • Are the MiliD camp playing the expectations game?
  • A leak from within the Electoral Reform Society or from other officials with access to the result is a remote possibility.

Either way Scrapbook will be awaiting the result: Blackberry in one hand; popcorn in the other.

One Comment

  1. Political Scrapbook says:

    New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  2. Dale Bray says:

    RT @psbook: New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  3. RT @psbook: Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  4. RT @psbook New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  5. RT @psbook: Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://bit.ly/cIoqDU

  6. RT @psbook: Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://bit.ly/cIoqDU

  7. Lauren B says:

    RT @psbook: New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  8. RT @psbook: Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://bit.ly/cIoqDU #LabourLeader

  9. RT @psbook: Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://bit.ly/cIoqDU #LabourLeader

  10. Flo C says:

    RT @houseoftwits: RT @psbook New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  11. Flo C says:

    RT @houseoftwits: RT @psbook New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  12. Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband | Political Scrapbook http://bit.ly/bJAoi8

  13. Jenna says:

    Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband | Political Scrapbook: In the spirit of it being better to arrive late to… http://bit.ly/a8ggon

  14. Should have had bet on as well as vote for EdM? HT @psbook: Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://bit.ly/cIoqDU

  15. http://bit.ly/47hmQa Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband | Political Scrapbook: In the spirit of it being bet… http://bit.ly/b85Ox0

  16. RT @sunny_hundal: RT @psbook: Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  17. Betting was suspended on Ed Miliband last night. Now it's David's turn! http://is.gd/fs23e Our post from last night: http://is.gd/frk2L

  18. RT @psbook: Betting was suspended on Ed Miliband last night. Now it's David's turn! http://is.gd/fs23e Our post from last night: http://is.gd/frk2L

  19. RT @psbook: New post –> Speculation reaches fever pitch as Ladbrokes suspend betting on Ed Miliband http://is.gd/frk2L

  20. Nathaniel says:

    “Ed favourite at 5/1 and David pushed out to 3/1″ – there is a mistake here, surely. odds of 3/1 = probability of 1/4, whereas odds of 5/1 = probability of 1/6, so David would be the favorite if those were the odds.

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