Earlier this year Scotland bucked the national trend and recorded an increase in the Labour vote of 2.5%, and this shift to Labour shows no sign of letting up. Today’s IPSOS/MORI Holyrood poll gives Scottish Labour an 8% boost since February this year in the constituencies, and a 9% boost on the regional vote. This translates to Labour winning 57 seats in the Scottish Parliament – more than Labour won at its high point in 1999 – and just five seats short of an overall majority.
And while the SNP melts away, the Conservatives are experiencing a slump in support and are expected to drop from 17 to 14 seats.
Scots Labour Leader Iain Gray is particularly fond of the famous American ‘turtle on the fence post‘ analogy. With polling numbers like this one can easily understand why.